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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+3.83vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+6.19vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.75+5.06vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.14+2.62vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.66+3.24vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.80+5.52vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+1.70vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.18-1.65vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.53-0.40vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.56-7.04vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy2.60-5.69vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-0.52+4.05vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.52-0.30vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.61-1.90vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University0.21-1.57vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-1.50vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.09-2.60vs Predicted
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18University of Victoria-0.62-1.81vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis0.13-5.25vs Predicted
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20California State University Monterey Bay-0.52-3.95vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-1.15-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.83University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.0%1st Place
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8.06University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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6.62University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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8.24University of California at Berkeley1.660.0%1st Place
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11.52University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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8.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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6.35University of Southern California2.180.1%1st Place
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8.6University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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2.96Stanford University3.560.3%1st Place
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5.31California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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16.05California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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12.7Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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12.1University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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13.43Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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14.5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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14.4University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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16.19University of Victoria-0.620.0%1st Place
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13.75University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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16.05California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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17.5Arizona State University-1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 13.2% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Romain Screve | 29.7% | 24.1% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 19.9% | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| Caitlyn Shum | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 19.7% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 19.9% | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Theut | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 39.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.