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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.56+1.96vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+3.21vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.75+4.98vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.52+8.32vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.53+3.67vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay-0.52+9.77vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-2.07vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+0.05vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.80+2.24vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-1.62vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-0.09+3.44vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.66-3.67vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis0.13+0.97vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California2.18-7.56vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii2.14-8.42vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles0.61-3.96vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay-0.52-1.23vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-3.73vs Predicted
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19University of Victoria-0.62-2.95vs Predicted
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20Santa Clara University0.21-6.66vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-2.26-1.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96Stanford University3.560.3%1st Place
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5.21California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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7.98University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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12.32Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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8.67University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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15.77California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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4.93University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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8.05University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.0%1st Place
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11.24University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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8.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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14.44University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Berkeley1.660.0%1st Place
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13.97University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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6.44University of Southern California2.180.1%1st Place
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6.58University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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12.04University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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15.77California State University Monterey Bay-0.520.0%1st Place
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14.27University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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16.05University of Victoria-0.620.0%1st Place
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13.34Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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19.04Arizona State University-2.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Screve | 31.0% | 24.2% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 11.8% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 5.0% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 16.6% | 20.8% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 10.8% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Liam Patrick | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 16.6% | 20.8% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Caitlyn Shum | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 17.6% | 23.5% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 1.5% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Emelia Dolson | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 10.1% | 73.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.