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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.09+5.90vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.59+8.37vs Predicted
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3Harvard University1.62+5.35vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.72+0.73vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.09+5.24vs Predicted
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6George Washington University0.47+6.55vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.51+2.45vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.86+0.45vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.80+0.46vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University0.46+1.16vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.98-3.69vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.85-3.51vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.06-2.56vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.29-8.20vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.06-8.66vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.06-5.62vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05-4.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.9Roger Williams University2.099.2%1st Place
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10.37Northeastern University1.593.4%1st Place
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8.35Harvard University1.626.2%1st Place
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4.73Stanford University2.7215.6%1st Place
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10.24Connecticut College1.093.5%1st Place
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12.55George Washington University0.471.9%1st Place
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9.45Tufts University1.514.0%1st Place
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8.45Brown University1.865.3%1st Place
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9.46University of Rhode Island1.804.2%1st Place
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11.16Salve Regina University0.462.6%1st Place
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7.31Fordham University1.988.1%1st Place
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8.49Brown University1.856.0%1st Place
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10.44University of Vermont1.064.0%1st Place
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5.8Yale University2.2911.4%1st Place
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6.34Bowdoin College2.069.4%1st Place
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10.38Boston University1.063.2%1st Place
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12.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.052.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Stokke | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.6% |
| Kate Danielson | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 15.6% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Craine | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 6.6% |
| Hayden Clary | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 24.1% |
| Clark Morris | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Declan Botwinick | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Emil Tullberg | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.7% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Laura Hamilton | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Ethan Burt | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 11.4% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Max Teo | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% |
| Lewis Bragg | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 15.0% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.