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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
28
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+4.16vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.00+2.29vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.15+10.02vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.50+5.43vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy2.08-1.01vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara0.70+2.55vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara0.58+2.15vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.36-1.81vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-0.62+6.11vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.11+1.72vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.02+1.02vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.34-1.72vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-0.62+2.11vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.27+4.36vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles0.29-4.73vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University-0.29-3.74vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-2.26+4.36vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley-0.76-3.31vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis-0.38-6.25vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.61-1.12vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.76-6.16vs Predicted
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23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-4.74vs Predicted
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24Arizona State University-1.64-4.52vs Predicted
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25University of California at Davis-2.22-3.00vs Predicted
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26University of California at Irvine-1.65-5.90vs Predicted
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27University of California at San Diego-1.44-8.18vs Predicted
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28Arizona State University-1.97-6.99vs Predicted
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29Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71-8.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.16University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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4.29University of Southern California2.000.2%1st Place
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13.02University of California at San Diego-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.43University of California at Berkeley0.500.0%1st Place
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3.99California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.2%1st Place
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8.55University of California at Santa Barbara0.700.0%1st Place
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9.15University of California at Santa Barbara0.580.0%1st Place
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6.19University of California at Berkeley1.360.1%1st Place
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15.11California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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11.72University of California at Los Angeles0.110.0%1st Place
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12.02University of California at Berkeley-0.020.0%1st Place
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10.28University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.0%1st Place
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15.11California State University Monterey Bay-0.620.0%1st Place
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18.36University of California at Irvine-1.270.0%1st Place
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10.27University of California at Los Angeles0.290.0%1st Place
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13.26San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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22.36Arizona State University-2.260.0%1st Place
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15.69University of California at Berkeley-0.760.0%1st Place
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13.75University of California at Davis-0.380.0%1st Place
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19.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.610.0%1st Place
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15.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.760.0%1st Place
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18.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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19.48Arizona State University-1.640.0%1st Place
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22.0University of California at Davis-2.220.0%1st Place
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20.1University of California at Irvine-1.650.0%1st Place
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18.82University of California at San Diego-1.440.0%1st Place
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21.01Arizona State University-1.970.0%1st Place
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20.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampson Reynolds | 14.3% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Paulsen | 16.1% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Augustus Doricko | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 20.7% | 17.0% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Toomey | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Margot Mason | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Cassandra Shand | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Berwick | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keelin Davis | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caila Devlin | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Hali Aniol | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emelia Dolson | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 23.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Archer | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jodie Jacobs | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Corey Quillen | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Matich | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Haley Nadone | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Quattrucci | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 14.9% | 20.9% | 0.0% |
| Brian Newcomer | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hughes | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Liam Menkosky | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 15.3% | 0.0% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.