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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
28
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+4.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.50+7.58vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.00+1.20vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara0.70+4.40vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley-0.02+6.66vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.36-0.10vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy2.08-3.12vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.15+4.43vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.11+2.20vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.76+5.56vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara0.58-2.03vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.38+0.41vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.65+5.37vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.76+0.09vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz0.34-6.13vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-2.26+4.63vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay-1.47+0.53vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay-1.47-0.47vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-1.44-1.69vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71-1.38vs Predicted
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22San Diego State University-0.29-8.84vs Predicted
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23University of California at Irvine-1.27-5.51vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-6.65vs Predicted
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25Arizona State University-1.97-4.68vs Predicted
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26University of California at Los Angeles0.29-15.77vs Predicted
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27University of California at Davis-2.22-5.56vs Predicted
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28Arizona State University-1.64-9.12vs Predicted
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29Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.71-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.1University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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9.58University of California at Berkeley0.500.0%1st Place
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4.2University of Southern California2.000.2%1st Place
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8.4University of California at Santa Barbara0.700.1%1st Place
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11.66University of California at Berkeley-0.020.0%1st Place
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5.9University of California at Berkeley1.360.1%1st Place
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3.88California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.2%1st Place
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12.43University of California at San Diego-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.2University of California at Los Angeles0.110.0%1st Place
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15.56University of California at Berkeley-0.760.0%1st Place
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8.97University of California at Santa Barbara0.580.0%1st Place
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13.41University of California at Davis-0.380.0%1st Place
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19.37University of California at Irvine-1.650.0%1st Place
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15.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.760.0%1st Place
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9.87University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.0%1st Place
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21.63Arizona State University-2.260.0%1st Place
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18.53California State University Monterey Bay-1.470.0%1st Place
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18.53California State University Monterey Bay-1.470.0%1st Place
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18.31University of California at San Diego-1.440.0%1st Place
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19.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
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13.16San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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17.49University of California at Irvine-1.270.0%1st Place
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17.35Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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20.32Arizona State University-1.970.0%1st Place
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10.23University of California at Los Angeles0.290.0%1st Place
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21.44University of California at Davis-2.220.0%1st Place
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18.88Arizona State University-1.640.0%1st Place
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26.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampson Reynolds | 13.6% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Augustus Doricko | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Paulsen | 18.0% | 16.6% | 13.4% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Toomey | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Berwick | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 19.7% | 17.2% | 15.5% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cassandra Shand | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Archer | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Margot Mason | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jodie Jacobs | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Newcomer | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Matich | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Keelin Davis | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emelia Dolson | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 21.6% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Clover Stubbert | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Clover Stubbert | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hughes | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hali Aniol | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Menkosky | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Quattrucci | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 19.6% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Haley Nadone | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Carson Bristol | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 5.8% | 84.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.