← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
28
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara0.70+7.69vs Predicted
-
2California Poly Maritime Academy2.08+1.96vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+2.05vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Barbara0.58+4.84vs Predicted
-
5University of Southern California2.00-0.89vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley1.36-0.14vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Berkeley-0.76+8.18vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Davis-0.38+5.44vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Los Angeles0.11+2.09vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Santa Cruz0.34+0.20vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles0.29-0.88vs Predicted
-
12University of California at San Diego-0.15+0.12vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Berkeley0.50-3.72vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Berkeley-0.02-2.58vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Irvine-1.65+4.05vs Predicted
-
16University of California at San Diego-1.44+2.19vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University-1.97+3.44vs Predicted
-
18San Diego State University-0.29-5.27vs Predicted
-
19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.76-3.87vs Predicted
-
20University of California at Irvine-1.27-2.29vs Predicted
-
22California State University Monterey Bay-1.47-3.86vs Predicted
-
23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71-4.14vs Predicted
-
24Arizona State University-2.26-2.82vs Predicted
-
25California State University Monterey Bay-1.47-6.86vs Predicted
-
26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-8.31vs Predicted
-
27Arizona State University-2.54-4.75vs Predicted
-
28University of California at Davis-2.22-7.07vs Predicted
-
29Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.71-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.69University of California at Santa Barbara0.700.1%1st Place
-
3.96California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.2%1st Place
-
5.05University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
-
8.84University of California at Santa Barbara0.580.1%1st Place
-
4.11University of Southern California2.000.2%1st Place
-
5.86University of California at Berkeley1.360.1%1st Place
-
15.18University of California at Berkeley-0.760.0%1st Place
-
13.44University of California at Davis-0.380.0%1st Place
-
11.09University of California at Los Angeles0.110.0%1st Place
-
10.2University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.0%1st Place
-
10.12University of California at Los Angeles0.290.0%1st Place
-
12.12University of California at San Diego-0.150.0%1st Place
-
9.28University of California at Berkeley0.500.0%1st Place
-
11.42University of California at Berkeley-0.020.0%1st Place
-
19.05University of California at Irvine-1.650.0%1st Place
-
18.19University of California at San Diego-1.440.0%1st Place
-
20.44Arizona State University-1.970.0%1st Place
-
12.73San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
-
15.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.760.0%1st Place
-
17.71University of California at Irvine-1.270.0%1st Place
-
18.14California State University Monterey Bay-1.470.0%1st Place
-
18.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
-
21.18Arizona State University-2.260.0%1st Place
-
18.14California State University Monterey Bay-1.470.0%1st Place
-
17.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
-
22.25Arizona State University-2.540.0%1st Place
-
20.93University of California at Davis-2.220.0%1st Place
-
26.35Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Toomey | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 19.0% | 19.1% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 12.3% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Margot Mason | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Spencer Paulsen | 19.9% | 16.3% | 14.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Dorsay | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Archer | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jodie Jacobs | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cassandra Shand | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keelin Davis | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Molly Rowland | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Augustus Doricko | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mackenzie Berwick | 2.9% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Newcomer | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hughes | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Liam Menkosky | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Matich | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hali Aniol | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Clover Stubbert | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Emelia Dolson | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Clover Stubbert | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Vanderhoof | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 17.9% | 23.6% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Quattrucci | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Carson Bristol | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 7.7% | 82.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.