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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+3.55vs Predicted
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2Eckerd College2.17+6.17vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.07+5.54vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University1.95+4.94vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+1.17vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.53-2.03vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+2.87vs Predicted
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8Texas A&M University at Galveston1.28+3.32vs Predicted
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9University of Miami1.34+2.22vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.64+9.36vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.92+1.69vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.26+3.23vs Predicted
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13University of Washington0.95-0.15vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.13+1.53vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.36+1.78vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.35-8.60vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-6.83vs Predicted
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18Santa Clara University-1.25+1.03vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-1.64+0.36vs Predicted
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20Western Washington University0.12-4.42vs Predicted
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21Tufts University2.83-15.11vs Predicted
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22University of Southern California2.18-14.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.55St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.2%1st Place
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8.17Eckerd College2.170.1%1st Place
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8.54California Poly Maritime Academy2.070.0%1st Place
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8.94Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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6.17University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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3.97Georgetown University3.530.2%1st Place
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9.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.0%1st Place
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11.32Texas A&M University at Galveston1.280.0%1st Place
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11.22University of Miami1.340.0%1st Place
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19.36Arizona State University-1.640.0%1st Place
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12.69University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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15.23University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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12.85University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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15.53University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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16.78University of California at Irvine-0.360.0%1st Place
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7.4George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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10.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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19.03Santa Clara University-1.250.0%1st Place
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19.36Arizona State University-1.640.0%1st Place
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15.58Western Washington University0.120.0%1st Place
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5.89Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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7.75University of Southern California2.180.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 16.1% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Ratcliff | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brock Paquin | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Davies | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andy Reiter | 19.4% | 18.6% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Hankins | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Scotti | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Haley Nadone | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 9.9% | 20.0% | 51.2% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jayden Potter | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Tuck | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 19.7% | 18.1% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Aitana Mendiguren | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bennett Dorsey | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 12.9% | 30.6% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Haley Nadone | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 9.9% | 20.0% | 51.2% | 0.0% |
| Niko Twilla | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.