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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.94+3.88vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.22+5.10vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.94+5.16vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.41+2.44vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University1.93+3.26vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+4.16vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.38-3.29vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.75+0.67vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.84-0.56vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy1.51-0.19vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.71-5.55vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California1.75-3.13vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University-0.01+2.11vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.40+4.42vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.34-1.25vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-0.19-0.49vs Predicted
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17University of Washington0.79-4.68vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles0.61-4.73vs Predicted
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19Texas A&M University at Galveston0.11-4.30vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.40-1.58vs Predicted
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21Santa Clara University-0.95-3.45vs Predicted
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22University of California at Irvine-3.06-1.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.940.1%1st Place
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7.1University of Miami2.220.1%1st Place
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8.16Tufts University1.940.0%1st Place
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6.44George Washington University2.410.1%1st Place
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8.26Northwestern University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.0%1st Place
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3.71Georgetown University3.380.2%1st Place
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8.67University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
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8.44Eckerd College1.840.0%1st Place
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9.81California Poly Maritime Academy1.510.0%1st Place
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5.45University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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8.87University of Southern California1.750.0%1st Place
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15.11Western Washington University-0.010.0%1st Place
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18.42Arizona State University-1.400.0%1st Place
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13.75University of California at Santa Cruz0.340.0%1st Place
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15.51University of California at Davis-0.190.0%1st Place
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12.32University of Washington0.790.0%1st Place
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13.27University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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14.7Texas A&M University at Galveston0.110.0%1st Place
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18.42Arizona State University-1.400.0%1st Place
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17.55Santa Clara University-0.950.0%1st Place
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20.43University of California at Irvine-3.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Cooper | 13.8% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Turigliatto | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wells Drayton | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Soenke Jordan | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryder Easterlin | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 23.6% | 17.1% | 14.3% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerri Luttrell | 5.3% | 3.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Tallman | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nolan Van Dine | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Eastwood | 12.7% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikoline Alden | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Filip Teoharevic | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 41.8% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Keelin Davis | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Letchinger | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 17.0% | 13.8% | 8.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Austin Hauter | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Lack | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 14.5% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Filip Teoharevic | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 41.8% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Jay Weber | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 24.3% | 24.4% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Makayla Berndt | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 9.9% | 79.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.