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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+4.12vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands0.15+8.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.66+2.11vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.08-0.02vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.78-0.35vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara0.58+2.85vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.61+1.55vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara0.82-0.31vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.80-0.97vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University0.21-0.09vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands0.15-0.85vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.92-4.50vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.60-0.31vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.19-2.48vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands0.15-4.85vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.09-4.81vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University-0.29-5.32vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.35-3.27vs Predicted
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19San Diego State University-0.25-7.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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10.15California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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5.11University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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3.98California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.2%1st Place
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4.65University of California at Berkeley1.780.1%1st Place
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8.85University of California at Santa Barbara0.580.0%1st Place
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8.55University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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7.69University of California at Santa Barbara0.820.1%1st Place
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8.03University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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9.91Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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10.15California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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7.5University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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12.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.600.0%1st Place
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11.52University of California at Davis-0.190.0%1st Place
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10.15California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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11.19University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.68San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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14.73University of California at San Diego-1.350.0%1st Place
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11.67San Diego State University-0.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brough | 13.2% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 11.8% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 19.4% | 15.6% | 16.9% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Holden Payne | 14.8% | 15.5% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Margot Mason | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristan Richmond | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Carroll | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 16.6% | 16.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Letchinger | 2.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Bittner | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 15.7% | 45.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gillian Dean | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.