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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley1.78+3.56vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.08+1.89vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara0.82+4.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.66+1.19vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.25+6.46vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.92+1.66vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.15+3.27vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara0.58+0.51vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-3.67vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.60+2.69vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.19+0.48vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.15-1.73vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University0.21-3.08vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-0.29-2.20vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.09-3.83vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego0.80-8.08vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands0.15-6.73vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.35-3.29vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles0.61-10.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56University of California at Berkeley1.780.2%1st Place
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3.89California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.2%1st Place
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7.83University of California at Santa Barbara0.820.0%1st Place
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5.19University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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11.46San Diego State University-0.250.0%1st Place
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7.66University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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10.27California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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8.51University of California at Santa Barbara0.580.1%1st Place
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5.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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12.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.600.0%1st Place
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11.48University of California at Davis-0.190.0%1st Place
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10.27California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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9.92Santa Clara University0.210.0%1st Place
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11.8San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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11.17University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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7.92University of California at San Diego0.800.1%1st Place
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10.27California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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14.71University of California at San Diego-1.350.0%1st Place
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8.62University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holden Payne | 16.6% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 20.5% | 17.8% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristan Richmond | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 13.9% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gillian Dean | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Margot Mason | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 10.4% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Carroll | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Letchinger | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Culkin | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Bittner | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 46.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.