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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82+4.84vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.11+3.00vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80+2.82vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.21+0.76vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.64+1.27vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.80-2.63vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.69-1.01vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia0.82+0.18vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.01-1.25vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.60-3.74vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.33-3.81vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University-1.49-0.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
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5.0Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.82St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.1%1st Place
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4.76College of Charleston2.210.1%1st Place
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6.27Northeastern University1.640.1%1st Place
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3.37U. S. Naval Academy2.800.2%1st Place
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5.99Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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8.18University of Virginia0.820.0%1st Place
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7.75Northwestern University1.010.0%1st Place
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6.26George Washington University1.600.1%1st Place
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7.19Old Dominion University1.330.0%1st Place
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11.56North Carolina State University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Lawless | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Sebby Turner | 10.3% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Bennett | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 0.2% |
| Liza Toppa | 12.0% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Victoria Pajak | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 1.1% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 23.7% | 20.4% | 16.6% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 8.4% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 0.5% |
| Katie Purcell | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 16.2% | 26.1% | 5.1% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 16.4% | 18.9% | 2.3% |
| Marie Line | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 0.8% |
| Colleen Baumann | 4.7% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 15.7% | 13.1% | 2.3% |
| Anneliese Carlson | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.9% | 86.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.