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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University1.69+4.99vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.82+3.52vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.21+1.60vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80+1.65vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.64+1.01vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.11-1.17vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University1.01+0.51vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.80-4.70vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.33-2.32vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia0.82-1.98vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.76-2.58vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University-1.49-0.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.99Georgetown University1.690.1%1st Place
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5.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.820.1%1st Place
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4.6College of Charleston2.210.1%1st Place
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5.65St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.1%1st Place
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6.01Northeastern University1.640.1%1st Place
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4.83Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.51Northwestern University1.010.0%1st Place
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3.3U. S. Naval Academy2.800.3%1st Place
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6.68Old Dominion University1.330.1%1st Place
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8.02University of Virginia0.820.0%1st Place
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8.42George Washington University0.760.0%1st Place
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11.47North Carolina State University-1.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Sailer | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 0.6% |
| Bridget Lawless | 8.2% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Liza Toppa | 14.3% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Bennett | 6.9% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Victoria Pajak | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 0.9% |
| Sebby Turner | 12.6% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 4.2% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 25.7% | 21.3% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colleen Baumann | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 1.0% |
| Katie Purcell | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 3.5% |
| Sarah Hardee | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 15.3% | 25.9% | 5.9% |
| Anneliese Carlson | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 82.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.