Race 1A

ny-maritime-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Everett Botwinick 26.1% 22.8% 17.3% 12.6% 9.3% 6.0% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Noah Hemingway 5.8% 6.9% 8.5% 9.1% 9.8% 10.8% 10.4% 11.7% 9.6% 9.1% 5.9% 2.5%
Oscar Gilroy 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 4.8% 4.5% 6.2% 6.7% 8.1% 11.3% 14.7% 18.8% 15.5%
Elizabeth Frost 9.4% 9.7% 9.6% 10.4% 11.8% 11.8% 10.0% 10.4% 7.4% 5.4% 3.0% 1.1%
Joseph Bonacci 6.4% 7.1% 9.4% 9.0% 8.5% 10.0% 10.8% 10.2% 11.3% 9.6% 5.5% 2.0%
Nathaniel Hartwell 10.0% 9.8% 9.7% 12.1% 11.4% 10.3% 10.7% 9.8% 7.4% 5.4% 2.5% 0.7%
Jack Hammett 4.0% 5.5% 5.2% 6.6% 7.2% 7.8% 8.8% 11.1% 11.8% 13.0% 12.1% 6.9%
Matias Martin 14.6% 13.7% 14.3% 12.3% 11.6% 10.3% 9.2% 5.9% 5.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1%
James Owen 12.7% 12.0% 12.1% 12.4% 11.5% 11.3% 10.2% 7.4% 4.7% 3.2% 1.7% 0.7%
Berkley Yiu 4.3% 5.0% 5.5% 4.9% 7.2% 7.6% 8.1% 11.4% 12.3% 13.8% 12.0% 8.0%
Tess Halpern 1.5% 1.2% 2.1% 1.9% 2.4% 2.9% 3.8% 3.5% 7.2% 10.4% 18.0% 45.2%
William Mullray 2.4% 3.1% 2.9% 3.9% 4.9% 4.9% 7.6% 8.8% 11.2% 13.3% 19.4% 17.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.