← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Webb Institute1.30+1.98vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.15+4.21vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College0.50+2.36vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.61+4.60vs Predicted
-
5University of Texas1.01-0.43vs Predicted
-
6University of Michigan-0.26+1.31vs Predicted
-
7Columbia University0.44-1.51vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University0.69-3.20vs Predicted
-
9Princeton University-0.45-1.29vs Predicted
-
10Washington College0.19-3.74vs Predicted
-
11Williams College-1.54-0.91vs Predicted
-
12Florida Institute of Technology-0.88-3.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.98Webb Institute1.3028.2%1st Place
-
6.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.157.1%1st Place
-
5.36SUNY Maritime College0.509.8%1st Place
-
8.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.612.3%1st Place
-
4.57University of Texas1.0112.8%1st Place
-
7.31University of Michigan-0.263.8%1st Place
-
5.49Columbia University0.448.9%1st Place
-
4.8Fordham University0.6911.2%1st Place
-
7.71Princeton University-0.454.4%1st Place
-
6.26Washington College0.197.3%1st Place
-
10.09Williams College-1.541.0%1st Place
-
8.61Florida Institute of Technology-0.883.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett Botwinick | 28.2% | 22.1% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hemingway | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 9.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 17.6% | 17.7% |
| Matias Martin | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Hammett | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 5.5% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| James Owen | 11.2% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Berkley Yiu | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 7.5% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 1.7% |
| Tess Halpern | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 16.6% | 45.4% |
| William Mullray | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 16.2% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.