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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.30+1.99vs Predicted
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2University of Texas1.01+2.42vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.61+5.73vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.69+0.77vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.15+1.22vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.50-0.66vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.19-0.72vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan-0.26-0.59vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.44-3.40vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.45-2.45vs Predicted
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11Williams College-1.54-0.89vs Predicted
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12Florida Institute of Technology-0.88-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.99Webb Institute1.3027.9%1st Place
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4.42University of Texas1.0114.9%1st Place
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8.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.612.5%1st Place
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4.77Fordham University0.6912.6%1st Place
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.156.5%1st Place
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5.34SUNY Maritime College0.509.8%1st Place
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6.28Washington College0.195.7%1st Place
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7.41University of Michigan-0.264.1%1st Place
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5.6Columbia University0.447.6%1st Place
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7.55Princeton University-0.454.8%1st Place
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10.11Williams College-1.541.2%1st Place
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8.57Florida Institute of Technology-0.882.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett Botwinick | 27.9% | 21.5% | 16.5% | 13.6% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matias Martin | 14.9% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| James Owen | 12.6% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Noah Hemingway | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 1.8% |
| Jack Hammett | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 6.3% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Berkley Yiu | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 7.6% |
| Tess Halpern | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 17.5% | 46.9% |
| William Mullray | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 19.9% | 16.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.