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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Texas1.01+3.48vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College0.50+3.42vs Predicted
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3Washington College0.19+3.27vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.30-0.98vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.69-0.21vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.15+0.12vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan-0.26+0.38vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.44-2.53vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.61-0.29vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.45-2.45vs Predicted
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11Williams College-1.54-0.92vs Predicted
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12Florida Institute of Technology-0.88-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.48University of Texas1.0113.7%1st Place
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5.42SUNY Maritime College0.5010.2%1st Place
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6.27Washington College0.195.9%1st Place
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3.02Webb Institute1.3026.3%1st Place
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4.79Fordham University0.6911.6%1st Place
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6.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.157.8%1st Place
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7.38University of Michigan-0.264.8%1st Place
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5.47Columbia University0.449.0%1st Place
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8.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.612.4%1st Place
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7.55Princeton University-0.454.5%1st Place
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10.08Williams College-1.541.4%1st Place
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8.71Florida Institute of Technology-0.882.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Martin | 13.7% | 13.8% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.2% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 26.3% | 23.2% | 17.1% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Owen | 11.6% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Noah Hemingway | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Jack Hammett | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 6.3% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 14.8% | 18.9% | 17.4% |
| Berkley Yiu | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 7.8% |
| Tess Halpern | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 16.7% | 45.2% |
| William Mullray | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 20.6% | 17.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.