← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University0.69+3.76vs Predicted
-
2Webb Institute1.30+0.98vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College0.50+2.37vs Predicted
-
4University of Texas1.01+0.38vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.15+1.44vs Predicted
-
6Washington College0.19+0.15vs Predicted
-
7Columbia University0.44-1.50vs Predicted
-
8University of Michigan-0.26-0.69vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.61-0.39vs Predicted
-
10Princeton University-0.45-2.31vs Predicted
-
11Florida Institute of Technology-0.88-2.30vs Predicted
-
12Williams College-1.54-1.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.76Fordham University0.6910.8%1st Place
-
2.98Webb Institute1.3029.0%1st Place
-
5.37SUNY Maritime College0.5010.2%1st Place
-
4.38University of Texas1.0113.4%1st Place
-
6.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.155.8%1st Place
-
6.15Washington College0.195.8%1st Place
-
5.5Columbia University0.449.3%1st Place
-
7.31University of Michigan-0.264.0%1st Place
-
8.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.613.3%1st Place
-
7.69Princeton University-0.454.2%1st Place
-
8.7Florida Institute of Technology-0.883.2%1st Place
-
10.11Williams College-1.541.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Owen | 10.8% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 29.0% | 21.9% | 16.6% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Matias Martin | 13.4% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hemingway | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 5.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Jack Hammett | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 19.1% | 17.2% |
| Berkley Yiu | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 7.4% |
| William Mullray | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 15.6% | 17.7% | 17.2% |
| Tess Halpern | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 17.9% | 46.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.