← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Webb Institute1.30+2.11vs Predicted
-
2University of Texas1.01+2.53vs Predicted
-
3University of Michigan-0.26+4.47vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University0.69+0.80vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.15+1.31vs Predicted
-
6Princeton University-0.45+1.73vs Predicted
-
7Washington College0.19-0.72vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.61+0.72vs Predicted
-
9Columbia University0.44-3.48vs Predicted
-
10Williams College-1.12-0.71vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College0.50-5.61vs Predicted
-
12Florida Institute of Technology-0.88-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.11Webb Institute1.3026.9%1st Place
-
4.53University of Texas1.0113.8%1st Place
-
7.47University of Michigan-0.264.2%1st Place
-
4.8Fordham University0.6912.3%1st Place
-
6.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.156.8%1st Place
-
7.73Princeton University-0.454.5%1st Place
-
6.28Washington College0.196.5%1st Place
-
8.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.612.3%1st Place
-
5.52Columbia University0.449.2%1st Place
-
9.29Williams College-1.121.9%1st Place
-
5.39SUNY Maritime College0.509.6%1st Place
-
8.86Florida Institute of Technology-0.882.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett Botwinick | 26.9% | 21.5% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matias Martin | 13.8% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jack Hammett | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 7.8% |
| James Owen | 12.3% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Noah Hemingway | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Berkley Yiu | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 10.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 2.2% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 16.1% | 21.6% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 18.5% | 29.2% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| William Mullray | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 17.5% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.