← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University3.33+4.93vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.50+7.10vs Predicted
-
3College of Charleston3.37+2.67vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University2.76+3.70vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+3.28vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.31+3.69vs Predicted
-
7Georgetown University2.46+2.02vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University2.14+2.27vs Predicted
-
9Brown University3.02-2.31vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Naval Academy2.80-2.12vs Predicted
-
11Harvard University2.69-2.79vs Predicted
-
12Stanford University2.62-3.27vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University2.04-2.45vs Predicted
-
14Connecticut College1.76-2.54vs Predicted
-
15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72-7.09vs Predicted
-
16Eckerd College0.85-1.21vs Predicted
-
17University of Wisconsin1.26-3.37vs Predicted
-
18SUNY Maritime College0.49-2.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.93Yale University3.330.1%1st Place
-
9.1Cornell University2.500.0%1st Place
-
5.67College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
-
7.7George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
-
8.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
-
9.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.310.0%1st Place
-
9.02Georgetown University2.460.1%1st Place
-
10.27Old Dominion University2.140.0%1st Place
-
6.69Brown University3.020.1%1st Place
-
7.88U. S. Naval Academy2.800.1%1st Place
-
8.21Harvard University2.690.1%1st Place
-
8.73Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
-
10.55Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
-
11.46Connecticut College1.760.0%1st Place
-
7.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.1%1st Place
-
14.79Eckerd College0.850.0%1st Place
-
13.63University of Wisconsin1.260.0%1st Place
-
15.49SUNY Maritime College0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisa Nordstrom | 11.1% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Alie Toppa | 12.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Legault | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Bailey Carter | 5.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Ellie Ungar | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Haddon Hughes | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Olivia Windemuller | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Sophie Hibben | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Emma Kaneti | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Stephanie Houck | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Grace Howie | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 2.3% |
| Julia Leighton | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 5.5% |
| Annie Hughes | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Ainsley Parramore | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 23.7% | 27.4% |
| Erin Sullivan | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 16.0% | 18.5% | 14.7% |
| Clara Guarascio | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 11.2% | 19.7% | 41.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.