Race 5A

sea-to-sky

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Erik Skeel 22.0% 20.7% 18.2% 11.3% 10.5% 6.6% 4.9% 2.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Karl Skeel 28.3% 22.3% 17.8% 12.6% 8.2% 4.8% 3.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dillon Kilroy 12.3% 13.6% 13.9% 14.4% 12.9% 10.2% 7.6% 7.2% 4.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Matthew Goguen 1.0% 1.8% 3.5% 3.7% 2.7% 5.0% 6.3% 6.3% 8.5% 8.0% 10.0% 12.9% 14.5% 15.8%
Austin Hauter 8.5% 10.0% 11.7% 13.0% 13.5% 10.9% 10.0% 8.3% 6.6% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3%
Jonah Cadieux-Johnson 2.9% 2.6% 2.9% 5.0% 5.8% 6.6% 6.7% 7.9% 10.7% 12.0% 8.8% 10.7% 9.5% 7.9%
Nikoline Alden 5.2% 6.2% 6.5% 7.2% 8.3% 10.2% 10.6% 9.7% 8.7% 9.2% 7.0% 5.6% 3.9% 1.7%
Hannah Stevens 1.5% 1.6% 2.8% 2.3% 3.3% 2.9% 4.9% 5.0% 6.7% 6.3% 9.3% 11.9% 16.7% 24.8%
Wyatt Keysor 1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 2.8% 2.3% 3.3% 4.1% 5.1% 7.1% 9.0% 11.9% 12.2% 16.8% 20.1%
Caitlyn Shum 2.3% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 4.0% 7.1% 7.1% 8.4% 8.1% 11.5% 10.7% 13.0% 10.8% 8.5%
Kendall Kracke 5.1% 6.1% 7.6% 9.2% 11.0% 9.9% 10.3% 10.2% 9.0% 6.6% 7.1% 3.9% 3.2% 0.8%
Ilya Sharikov 3.0% 2.6% 4.0% 5.2% 5.9% 6.7% 8.2% 10.6% 10.2% 10.3% 10.2% 9.1% 7.9% 6.1%
Shaan Shridhar 4.4% 4.8% 3.8% 6.7% 6.9% 9.3% 9.3% 9.9% 9.7% 10.6% 9.7% 6.8% 4.8% 3.3%
Andrew Futcher 1.7% 2.6% 3.4% 3.6% 4.7% 6.5% 6.9% 7.2% 8.2% 10.0% 11.8% 11.8% 10.9% 10.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.