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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.60+3.30vs Predicted
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2Florida Institute of Technology-0.48+5.01vs Predicted
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3University of Texas0.41+2.04vs Predicted
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4Columbia University0.43+0.61vs Predicted
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5Princeton University-0.08+1.14vs Predicted
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6Fordham University-0.26+0.54vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.93+1.37vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan-0.01-2.08vs Predicted
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9-0.08-3.00vs Predicted
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10Williams College-0.90-1.14vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.52-3.92vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.79-3.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.6016.2%1st Place
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7.01Florida Institute of Technology-0.486.9%1st Place
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5.04University of Texas0.4111.7%1st Place
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4.61Columbia University0.4315.0%1st Place
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6.14Princeton University-0.087.5%1st Place
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6.54Fordham University-0.267.6%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.933.7%1st Place
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5.92University of Michigan-0.018.5%1st Place
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6.0-0.089.2%1st Place
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8.86Williams College-0.902.9%1st Place
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7.08SUNY Maritime College-0.526.8%1st Place
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8.12Washington College-0.794.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carson | 16.2% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 11.7% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Eva DeCastro | 15.0% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Advik Eswaran | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% |
| Robert Upton | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 4.5% |
| Aubrey Walton | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 15.9% | 20.2% |
| Samuel Stephens | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
| Marc Leyk | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 16.1% | 27.9% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% |
| Imogene Nuss | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 17.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.