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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.60+3.14vs Predicted
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2Florida Institute of Technology-0.48+4.98vs Predicted
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3-0.08+3.11vs Predicted
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4Princeton University-0.08+2.00vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan-0.01+0.90vs Predicted
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6University of Texas0.41-1.02vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.43-2.33vs Predicted
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8Williams College-0.90+0.88vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.52-1.85vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.93-1.44vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.79-3.10vs Predicted
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12Fordham University-0.26-5.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.6017.8%1st Place
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6.98Florida Institute of Technology-0.486.2%1st Place
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6.11-0.089.7%1st Place
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6.0Princeton University-0.089.4%1st Place
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5.9University of Michigan-0.019.4%1st Place
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4.98University of Texas0.4112.1%1st Place
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4.67Columbia University0.4314.3%1st Place
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8.88Williams College-0.902.9%1st Place
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7.15SUNY Maritime College-0.525.8%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.933.1%1st Place
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7.9Washington College-0.794.2%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University-0.265.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carson | 17.8% | 16.8% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% |
| Marc Leyk | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 3.6% |
| Advik Eswaran | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 2.9% |
| Samuel Stephens | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 12.1% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Eva DeCastro | 14.3% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 16.2% | 28.4% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.6% |
| Aubrey Walton | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 22.5% |
| Imogene Nuss | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 15.5% |
| Robert Upton | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.