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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Williams College-0.90+8.04vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.73+0.05vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.60+1.63vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College-0.13+2.47vs Predicted
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5Florida Institute of Technology-0.48+2.24vs Predicted
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6Princeton University-0.08+0.28vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan-0.01-0.80vs Predicted
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8Fordham University-0.26-1.18vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.93-0.38vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.79-1.95vs Predicted
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11Columbia University0.43-5.96vs Predicted
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12University of Texas-0.52-4.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.04Williams College-0.901.9%1st Place
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2.05Webb Institute1.7345.0%1st Place
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4.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.6010.7%1st Place
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6.47SUNY Maritime College-0.135.8%1st Place
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7.24Florida Institute of Technology-0.484.0%1st Place
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6.28Princeton University-0.085.9%1st Place
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6.2University of Michigan-0.014.7%1st Place
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6.82Fordham University-0.264.5%1st Place
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8.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.932.4%1st Place
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8.05Washington College-0.792.1%1st Place
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5.04Columbia University0.439.3%1st Place
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7.56University of Texas-0.523.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Nusbaum | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 27.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 45.0% | 28.5% | 13.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Carson | 10.7% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Luke Barker | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 7.5% |
| Advik Eswaran | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Samuel Stephens | 4.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| Robert Upton | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| Aubrey Walton | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 22.6% |
| Imogene Nuss | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 15.4% |
| Eva DeCastro | 9.3% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Oliver Fenner | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.