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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+1.09vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.60+2.72vs Predicted
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3Williams College-0.90+6.01vs Predicted
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4University of Michigan-0.01+2.18vs Predicted
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5Fordham University-0.26+1.74vs Predicted
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6Florida Institute of Technology-0.48+1.24vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.08-0.66vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.60vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.43-4.09vs Predicted
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10University of Texas-0.52-2.32vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.93-2.39vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.79-3.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.09Webb Institute1.7345.6%1st Place
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4.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.6010.5%1st Place
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9.01Williams College-0.902.1%1st Place
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6.18University of Michigan-0.015.4%1st Place
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6.74Fordham University-0.264.5%1st Place
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7.24Florida Institute of Technology-0.483.8%1st Place
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6.34Princeton University-0.084.9%1st Place
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6.4SUNY Maritime College-0.135.6%1st Place
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4.91Columbia University0.439.8%1st Place
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7.68University of Texas-0.523.9%1st Place
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8.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.932.1%1st Place
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8.08Washington College-0.792.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 45.6% | 24.4% | 14.6% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Carson | 10.5% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 15.8% | 28.2% |
| Samuel Stephens | 5.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 2.9% |
| Robert Upton | 4.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 5.1% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 7.6% |
| Advik Eswaran | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.6% |
| Luke Barker | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 9.8% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Fenner | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 11.2% |
| Aubrey Walton | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 16.6% | 21.0% |
| Imogene Nuss | 2.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 15.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.