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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.60+3.35vs Predicted
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2Princeton University-0.08+4.14vs Predicted
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3Florida Institute of Technology-0.48+4.08vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute-0.08+1.93vs Predicted
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5University of Texas0.41+0.03vs Predicted
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6Williams College-0.90+3.05vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.43-2.19vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.13-1.70vs Predicted
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9Fordham University-0.26-2.29vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan-0.01-4.03vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.79-2.87vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.93-3.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.6016.4%1st Place
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6.14Princeton University-0.088.8%1st Place
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7.08Florida Institute of Technology-0.486.2%1st Place
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5.93Webb Institute-0.089.6%1st Place
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5.03University of Texas0.4113.0%1st Place
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9.05Williams College-0.902.0%1st Place
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4.81Columbia University0.4313.0%1st Place
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6.3SUNY Maritime College-0.137.8%1st Place
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6.71Fordham University-0.267.2%1st Place
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5.97University of Michigan-0.018.7%1st Place
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8.13Washington College-0.794.2%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.933.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carson | 16.4% | 15.8% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Advik Eswaran | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 3.3% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 7.5% |
| Marc Leyk | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 13.0% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 16.3% | 30.6% |
| Eva DeCastro | 13.0% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Luke Barker | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Robert Upton | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 5.7% |
| Samuel Stephens | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| Imogene Nuss | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 17.8% |
| Aubrey Walton | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.