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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.75+6.20vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.62+2.49vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.45+5.24vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+0.52vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara3.19-1.71vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.75+1.29vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.15+5.98vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands0.15+4.98vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.94vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.09+4.00vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.25+3.55vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara1.34-3.41vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego1.45-4.73vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.52-2.18vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-7.42vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-3.43vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-0.64-1.11vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley0.60-6.59vs Predicted
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19Santa Clara University-0.95-1.94vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.43-1.90vs Predicted
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21University of California at Berkeley-0.21-6.53vs Predicted
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22Arizona State University-1.77-3.26vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-0.64-7.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.2University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
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4.49Stanford University2.620.2%1st Place
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8.24University of California at Santa Barbara1.450.0%1st Place
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4.52California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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3.29University of California at Santa Barbara3.190.3%1st Place
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7.29University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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12.98California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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12.98California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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9.94University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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14.0University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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14.55San Diego State University-0.250.0%1st Place
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8.59University of California at Santa Barbara1.340.0%1st Place
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8.27University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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11.82University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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7.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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12.57University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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15.89California State University Channel Islands-0.640.0%1st Place
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11.41University of California at Berkeley0.600.0%1st Place
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17.06Santa Clara University-0.950.0%1st Place
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18.1Arizona State University-1.430.0%1st Place
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14.47University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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18.74Arizona State University-1.770.0%1st Place
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15.89California State University Channel Islands-0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerri Luttrell | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Houck | 15.8% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Baxter | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 13.3% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Wilson | 25.9% | 20.5% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gillian Dean | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Politi | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Jones | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EVAN TWIGG-SMITH | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Weber | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 18.6% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carson Engle | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 22.1% | 27.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 20.1% | 40.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Jones | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.