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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+3.59vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.19+1.24vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.62+1.47vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.75+3.07vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.92+5.25vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+1.81vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.26+5.63vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.60+3.22vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California1.75-1.92vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara1.45-1.73vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.25+3.36vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-0.64+3.96vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.21+1.56vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.52-2.27vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.43+2.97vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.34-7.39vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands0.15-3.92vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands0.15-4.92vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-0.09-4.77vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego1.45-11.73vs Predicted
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21Santa Clara University-0.95-4.13vs Predicted
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22Arizona State University-1.77-3.27vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-0.64-7.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.59California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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3.24University of California at Santa Barbara3.190.2%1st Place
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4.47Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.07University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
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10.25University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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7.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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12.63University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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11.22University of California at Berkeley0.600.0%1st Place
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7.08University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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8.27University of California at Santa Barbara1.450.1%1st Place
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14.36San Diego State University-0.250.0%1st Place
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15.96California State University Channel Islands-0.640.0%1st Place
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14.56University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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11.73University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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17.97Arizona State University-1.430.0%1st Place
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8.61University of California at Santa Barbara1.340.0%1st Place
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13.08California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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13.08California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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14.23University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.27University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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16.87Santa Clara University-0.950.0%1st Place
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18.73Arizona State University-1.770.0%1st Place
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15.96California State University Channel Islands-0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johannes McElvain | 14.6% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Wilson | 24.7% | 21.9% | 16.2% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Houck | 14.5% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerri Luttrell | 5.6% | 4.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EVAN TWIGG-SMITH | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Baxter | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gillian Dean | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Jones | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carson Engle | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 20.9% | 28.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Politi | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Weber | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 17.9% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 20.5% | 39.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Jones | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.