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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+6.59vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+2.62vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.60+8.35vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.62+0.41vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara3.19-1.69vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.92+4.29vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.75+0.06vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.75-1.06vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.26+3.47vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.09+3.75vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands0.15+1.77vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.52-0.42vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.21+1.30vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego1.45-5.88vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.34-6.61vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands0.15-3.23vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.45-8.92vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-0.64-2.48vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-0.64-3.48vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-0.46-4.78vs Predicted
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21Santa Clara University-1.97-2.02vs Predicted
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22Arizona State University-1.43-4.20vs Predicted
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23Arizona State University-1.77-4.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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4.62California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Berkeley0.600.0%1st Place
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4.41Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
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3.31University of California at Santa Barbara3.190.3%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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7.06University of California at Santa Barbara1.750.1%1st Place
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6.94University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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12.47University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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13.75University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.77California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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11.58University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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14.3University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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8.12University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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8.39University of California at Santa Barbara1.340.0%1st Place
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12.77California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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8.08University of California at Santa Barbara1.450.0%1st Place
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15.52California State University Channel Islands-0.640.0%1st Place
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15.52California State University Channel Islands-0.640.0%1st Place
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15.22San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
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18.98Santa Clara University-1.970.0%1st Place
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17.8Arizona State University-1.430.0%1st Place
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18.43Arizona State University-1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brough | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 14.4% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EVAN TWIGG-SMITH | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Houck | 13.7% | 13.5% | 16.8% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Wilson | 26.1% | 19.9% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kerri Luttrell | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Melvin | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Politi | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Baxter | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Jones | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Jones | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Wild | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kekoa Blair | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 23.0% | 40.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carson Engle | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 17.0% | 20.2% | 20.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 24.9% | 28.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.