Race 4A

charleston-spring

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ian Liberty 4.5% 5.2% 5.7% 6.8% 8.2% 6.9% 8.2% 9.2% 11.6% 11.2% 11.0% 8.0% 3.5%
Erik Bowers 7.6% 8.1% 9.9% 11.1% 8.9% 10.1% 11.0% 8.1% 8.8% 8.2% 4.5% 3.0% 0.7%
Samuel Ingham 19.2% 17.6% 14.9% 12.8% 11.5% 9.6% 5.3% 4.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Willie McBride 3.3% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 6.3% 7.3% 8.3% 9.7% 9.3% 12.7% 13.6% 10.7% 3.9%
Joseph Kutschenreuter 12.2% 14.1% 10.8% 10.8% 9.8% 10.4% 9.5% 8.4% 5.3% 4.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Stephanie Roble 9.5% 8.4% 8.5% 10.4% 9.1% 9.4% 10.3% 10.3% 7.3% 7.0% 6.8% 2.5% 0.5%
Harrison Cabiness 2.1% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.2% 4.2% 5.2% 6.2% 7.0% 8.4% 11.9% 23.4% 20.4%
Sydney Bolger 18.7% 15.5% 13.9% 12.2% 12.4% 9.1% 6.3% 5.7% 3.3% 1.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jason Carminati 8.0% 7.3% 7.4% 8.6% 8.8% 10.1% 10.0% 9.1% 10.5% 7.7% 6.9% 4.3% 1.3%
Max Famiglietti 3.5% 3.7% 4.6% 3.9% 4.8% 5.6% 6.6% 7.5% 11.1% 11.0% 12.4% 16.9% 8.4%
Matthew Carmody 6.9% 7.0% 11.0% 8.9% 9.3% 9.1% 10.1% 9.2% 9.3% 8.4% 6.2% 3.3% 1.3%
Andrew Battigaglia 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 2.9% 2.7% 4.3% 5.6% 8.2% 15.5% 53.5%
Sam Fitzgerald 3.8% 3.9% 4.5% 4.7% 6.9% 7.3% 6.3% 9.4% 9.6% 12.4% 14.2% 10.9% 6.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.