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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.7%
Within 2 Positions
6.3
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.71+7.22vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands0.15+12.53vs Predicted
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3University of Washington1.74+5.10vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+4.28vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.25+5.10vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.61+6.94vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.04-0.19vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley1.66+0.19vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+1.30vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-1.25+8.41vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.60+5.79vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.09+3.45vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University-0.95+5.00vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands0.15+0.53vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego1.45-5.75vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-0.29-0.19vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz1.15-6.48vs Predicted
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18Western Washington University0.72-5.70vs Predicted
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19University of Hawaii2.14-12.19vs Predicted
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20University of Southern California1.75-11.93vs Predicted
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21Tulane University2.70-16.33vs Predicted
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22California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-14.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.22University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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14.53California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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8.1University of Washington1.740.1%1st Place
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8.28University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.1%1st Place
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10.1University of Hawaii1.250.0%1st Place
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12.94University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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6.81Stanford University2.040.1%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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10.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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18.41University of California at Santa Cruz-1.250.0%1st Place
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16.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.600.0%1st Place
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15.45University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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18.0Santa Clara University-0.950.0%1st Place
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14.53California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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9.25University of California at San Diego1.450.1%1st Place
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15.81San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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12.3Western Washington University0.720.0%1st Place
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6.81University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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8.07University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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4.67Tulane University2.700.2%1st Place
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7.46California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampson Reynolds | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Skeel | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika Garrett | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Mack | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 17.9% | 40.2% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Carroll | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 14.7% | 19.6% | 14.9% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| Jay Weber | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 22.9% | 27.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Axel Greening | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 17.9% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.