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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.70+3.39vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.04+4.55vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.81+4.43vs Predicted
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4University of Washington1.74+3.62vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.72+6.82vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.61+5.84vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.66+0.89vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+0.08vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii2.14-2.95vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California1.75-2.54vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego1.45-2.28vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.15+1.93vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-3.40vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.25-4.40vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara1.71-7.31vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-0.29-1.11vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University-0.95-0.42vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands0.15-4.07vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.60-3.16vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-0.09-5.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.39Tulane University2.700.2%1st Place
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6.55Stanford University2.040.1%1st Place
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7.43California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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7.62University of Washington1.740.1%1st Place
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11.82Western Washington University0.720.0%1st Place
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11.84University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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7.89University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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8.08University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.1%1st Place
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6.05University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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7.46University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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8.72University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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13.93California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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9.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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9.6University of Hawaii1.250.0%1st Place
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7.69University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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14.89San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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16.58Santa Clara University-0.950.0%1st Place
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13.93California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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15.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.600.0%1st Place
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14.04University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 17.2% | 15.6% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Kirkpatrick | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Skeel | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Axel Greening | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 10.9% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Annika Garrett | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 12.8% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Jay Weber | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 18.8% | 40.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Carroll | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 21.7% | 23.6% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.