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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.04+5.91vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz1.15+8.51vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.81+4.79vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+4.24vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.70-0.31vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.75+2.15vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.66+1.26vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.72+4.04vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.61+3.66vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara1.71-1.82vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii2.14-4.57vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands0.15+2.66vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii1.25-2.83vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-3.66vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands0.15-0.34vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.60+0.85vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.09-1.63vs Predicted
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18University of Washington1.74-10.14vs Predicted
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19Santa Clara University-0.95-0.89vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-0.29-3.92vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego1.45-11.79vs Predicted
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22University of California at Santa Cruz-1.25-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91Stanford University2.040.1%1st Place
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10.51University of California at Santa Cruz1.150.0%1st Place
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7.79California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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8.24University of California at Santa Barbara1.670.0%1st Place
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4.69Tulane University2.700.2%1st Place
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8.15University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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8.26University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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12.04Western Washington University0.720.0%1st Place
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12.66University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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8.18University of California at Santa Barbara1.710.1%1st Place
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6.43University of Hawaii2.140.1%1st Place
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14.66California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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10.17University of Hawaii1.250.0%1st Place
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10.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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14.66California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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16.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.600.0%1st Place
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15.37University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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7.86University of Washington1.740.1%1st Place
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18.11Santa Clara University-0.950.0%1st Place
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16.08San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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9.21University of California at San Diego1.450.0%1st Place
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18.51University of California at Santa Cruz-1.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Kirkpatrick | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aitor Iriso | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Kraus | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 17.3% | 16.4% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Axel Greening | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sampson Reynolds | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pacholski | 11.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Annika Garrett | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Carroll | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 15.4% | 18.2% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Karl Skeel | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jay Weber | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 21.7% | 28.3% | 0.0% |
| Erik Hallback | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Mack | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 20.8% | 36.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.