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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.18+4.23vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.34+6.09vs Predicted
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3Tulane University1.65+3.99vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.57+3.12vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.28-0.01vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy2.08-0.55vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands-0.64+7.91vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii0.87+1.92vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.37vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.15-1.38vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University1.03-1.87vs Predicted
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12Stanford University2.22-6.79vs Predicted
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13University of Washington0.93-3.67vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara0.58-3.02vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.96+0.57vs Predicted
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16Santa Clara University-0.65-1.13vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University-0.46-2.78vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-0.71-2.88vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-0.75-4.11vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-0.64-5.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.23University of Southern California2.180.1%1st Place
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8.09University of California at Santa Barbara1.340.1%1st Place
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6.99Tulane University1.650.1%1st Place
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7.12University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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4.99University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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5.45California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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14.91California State University Channel Islands-0.640.0%1st Place
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9.92University of Hawaii0.870.0%1st Place
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9.37University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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8.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.150.0%1st Place
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9.13Western Washington University1.030.0%1st Place
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5.21Stanford University2.220.1%1st Place
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9.33University of Washington0.930.0%1st Place
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10.98University of California at Santa Barbara0.580.0%1st Place
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15.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.960.0%1st Place
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14.87Santa Clara University-0.650.0%1st Place
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14.22San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
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15.12University of California at Irvine-0.710.0%1st Place
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14.89University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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14.91California State University Channel Islands-0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 11.9% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Politi | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caelan Watts | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 12.2% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 14.1% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Jones | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Lahr | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Josselyn Verutti | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Sole | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Potter | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Margot Mason | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Millan Chaudhary | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 16.2% | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| Peter Collins | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Adam Wild | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Kulavic | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 15.6% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Vick | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Laura Jones | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.