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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.08+4.56vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara0.58+8.92vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.22+2.14vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University1.03+5.26vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.92+4.55vs Predicted
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6Tulane University1.65+1.01vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.34+1.32vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.28-3.15vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.57-1.87vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.93-0.38vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.15-2.12vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.71+3.30vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.46+1.65vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University-1.25+2.65vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii0.87-5.23vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.75-0.75vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz0.26-5.02vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.96-2.14vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Cruz-2.65-0.07vs Predicted
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20University of Southern California2.18-14.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.56California Poly Maritime Academy2.080.1%1st Place
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10.92University of California at Santa Barbara0.580.0%1st Place
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5.14Stanford University2.220.1%1st Place
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9.26Western Washington University1.030.0%1st Place
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9.55University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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7.01Tulane University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.32University of California at Santa Barbara1.340.0%1st Place
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4.85University of Hawaii2.280.1%1st Place
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7.13University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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9.62University of Washington0.930.0%1st Place
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8.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.150.1%1st Place
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15.3University of California at Irvine-0.710.0%1st Place
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14.65San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
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16.65Santa Clara University-1.250.0%1st Place
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9.77University of Hawaii0.870.0%1st Place
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15.25University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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11.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.260.0%1st Place
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15.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.960.0%1st Place
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18.93University of California at Santa Cruz-2.650.0%1st Place
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5.34University of Southern California2.180.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fisker-Andersen | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Margot Mason | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Sole | 13.8% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Caelan Watts | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Politi | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 13.4% | 16.8% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Potter | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Josselyn Verutti | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Parker Kulavic | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 16.9% | 14.1% | 4.6% |
| Adam Wild | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 16.0% | 9.4% | 2.3% |
| Bennett Dorsey | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 25.9% | 13.3% |
| Hayden Lahr | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 4.1% |
| James Melvin | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Millan Chaudhary | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 16.5% | 19.1% | 7.8% |
| Nina-Katreen Hipkins | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 67.3% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 13.1% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.