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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.02+5.91vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.33+3.74vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.63+5.41vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.37+1.36vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72+2.87vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.40+3.22vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.24+2.82vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.36+1.23vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.64+3.33vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.13+0.55vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.44-1.83vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.80-0.02vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.69-5.16vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.34-4.83vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.04-4.32vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.12-5.60vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.76-5.02vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University1.01-3.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91Brown University3.020.1%1st Place
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5.74Yale University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.630.1%1st Place
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5.36College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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7.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.1%1st Place
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9.22Tufts University2.400.1%1st Place
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9.82Bowdoin College2.240.0%1st Place
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9.23University of Rhode Island2.360.0%1st Place
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12.33Northeastern University1.640.0%1st Place
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10.55University of Vermont2.130.0%1st Place
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9.17University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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11.98St. Mary's College of Maryland1.800.0%1st Place
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7.84Harvard University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.340.1%1st Place
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10.68Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.4Boston University2.120.0%1st Place
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11.98Connecticut College1.760.0%1st Place
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14.33Northwestern University1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Hibben | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Louisa Nordstrom | 9.9% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Bailey Carter | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Alie Toppa | 14.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Annie Hughes | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Talia Toland | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| Claire Havig | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% |
| Delaney Bamford | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Victoria Pajak | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 12.5% |
| Lolly Vasilion | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.8% |
| Ava Esquier | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Katherine Bennett | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% |
| Emma Kaneti | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Madelynn Widmeier | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Grace Howie | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% |
| Grace Mooradian | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.0% |
| Julia Leighton | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 33.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.