Race 10A

occ-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Aidan Molesky 8.8% 8.7% 9.5% 9.4% 9.0% 9.7% 9.7% 9.4% 7.9% 7.0% 4.5% 4.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0%
Thomas Cooper 9.6% 12.8% 11.4% 10.0% 9.3% 10.8% 9.9% 8.9% 5.8% 5.7% 3.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Connor Mraz 19.9% 17.4% 16.9% 12.8% 9.8% 8.6% 6.2% 4.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Paul Hart 6.6% 7.4% 7.7% 8.2% 9.1% 7.9% 9.5% 9.9% 10.7% 7.9% 7.4% 4.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.0%
Luca Taglialegne 18.5% 15.2% 13.8% 13.9% 11.3% 8.0% 6.9% 4.9% 4.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeremy McCauley 6.7% 9.1% 6.5% 9.3% 10.8% 9.6% 10.7% 9.1% 10.0% 7.1% 5.2% 4.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Madeline DelVescovo 4.0% 3.7% 4.2% 2.9% 4.8% 5.9% 5.8% 8.9% 10.1% 12.5% 12.7% 11.0% 8.0% 4.7% 0.8%
Townsend Morey 4.6% 3.0% 4.2% 5.9% 5.5% 7.1% 8.2% 8.2% 9.6% 10.4% 12.9% 11.3% 5.7% 2.9% 0.5%
Max Gillette 8.5% 9.4% 10.1% 10.3% 10.2% 9.7% 11.2% 8.7% 7.9% 7.6% 3.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
River Dixon 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% 4.3% 4.6% 9.2% 18.5% 55.7%
John Dixon 1.6% 2.4% 1.0% 1.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.5% 4.2% 7.2% 8.2% 10.2% 14.8% 16.5% 15.0% 6.3%
Liliana Loosbrock 7.7% 7.1% 9.7% 10.4% 8.8% 9.7% 9.2% 10.6% 8.9% 8.1% 6.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Katherine Foley 0.5% 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.2% 3.2% 3.7% 6.8% 10.2% 15.5% 27.0% 22.9%
Grace Wagner 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.4% 5.2% 4.7% 8.1% 10.0% 14.7% 20.2% 15.6% 7.9%
Samuel Parsons 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.6% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 4.5% 6.5% 8.4% 11.6% 14.7% 17.3% 13.4% 5.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.