Race 11A

occ-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Aidan Molesky 9.1% 9.1% 10.7% 11.4% 9.8% 10.6% 11.0% 8.7% 7.8% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1%
Paul Hart 7.6% 8.7% 8.4% 10.2% 9.1% 9.6% 12.5% 11.2% 8.4% 8.2% 3.1% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0%
Thomas Cooper 11.4% 11.7% 11.2% 10.1% 10.7% 11.4% 10.7% 8.9% 8.1% 4.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Luca Taglialegne 19.2% 19.1% 14.2% 12.8% 12.9% 8.6% 5.8% 3.7% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeline DelVescovo 2.7% 3.3% 5.0% 4.5% 6.2% 7.8% 8.6% 9.8% 11.4% 13.9% 11.7% 10.6% 3.6% 0.9%
Connor Mraz 20.7% 17.5% 17.5% 13.1% 9.6% 9.2% 5.4% 3.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Max Gillette 10.8% 10.8% 11.2% 11.3% 12.4% 11.4% 8.9% 8.6% 7.2% 4.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Townsend Morey 4.7% 4.5% 5.7% 4.7% 7.8% 7.4% 8.6% 12.6% 11.2% 12.1% 8.8% 8.2% 2.8% 0.9%
John Dixon 1.9% 2.1% 1.6% 3.3% 2.5% 3.5% 4.9% 5.5% 8.0% 13.3% 17.0% 15.3% 14.7% 6.4%
Jeremy McCauley 7.8% 8.2% 9.2% 10.7% 12.1% 10.2% 9.7% 11.0% 9.5% 5.7% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Katherine Foley 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 2.9% 3.3% 5.4% 6.4% 9.8% 16.3% 27.4% 22.2%
River Dixon 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 1.5% 0.9% 2.1% 1.6% 2.7% 4.1% 9.1% 19.0% 57.1%
Grace Wagner 2.0% 1.2% 1.9% 2.8% 2.2% 3.0% 3.8% 4.7% 7.9% 10.8% 15.9% 18.8% 16.8% 8.2%
Samuel Parsons 1.6% 2.1% 2.0% 3.2% 3.0% 4.8% 6.3% 6.1% 9.9% 9.7% 17.7% 16.6% 13.0% 4.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.