Race 12A

occ-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Max Gillette 9.3% 10.9% 13.0% 11.5% 10.6% 9.4% 10.2% 8.3% 7.0% 5.6% 2.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Aidan Molesky 10.7% 8.4% 10.7% 10.7% 9.3% 11.6% 11.7% 10.6% 6.2% 4.6% 3.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%
Thomas Cooper 12.1% 12.7% 9.7% 11.0% 12.4% 10.8% 8.5% 10.0% 5.9% 4.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Jeremy McCauley 7.6% 9.0% 9.9% 11.1% 10.2% 9.2% 12.0% 9.2% 10.1% 5.9% 3.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1%
Madeline DelVescovo 2.9% 3.7% 5.2% 4.0% 6.8% 7.7% 8.0% 10.0% 12.4% 13.6% 11.4% 7.4% 5.6% 1.3%
Connor Mraz 21.4% 17.3% 17.3% 13.6% 10.2% 8.0% 5.2% 3.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Katherine Foley 0.8% 0.9% 1.7% 0.9% 2.2% 3.0% 2.6% 3.5% 5.9% 6.9% 10.7% 15.3% 26.7% 18.9%
Paul Hart 7.8% 8.7% 7.6% 8.9% 9.3% 10.7% 11.3% 9.7% 8.7% 8.5% 4.9% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Luca Taglialegne 18.3% 18.4% 14.5% 15.2% 11.0% 8.6% 5.9% 4.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Townsend Morey 4.2% 3.8% 4.5% 6.2% 6.8% 7.8% 9.4% 10.5% 11.3% 13.5% 10.8% 6.6% 4.1% 0.5%
John Dixon 1.3% 2.5% 1.6% 2.3% 3.4% 4.0% 4.7% 7.2% 8.4% 11.2% 12.8% 20.1% 14.5% 6.0%
Grace Wagner 0.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.7% 3.2% 3.7% 3.7% 5.1% 8.4% 10.6% 14.3% 19.5% 15.9% 9.9%
River Dixon 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 1.7% 2.2% 3.5% 5.4% 7.9% 17.1% 57.7%
Samuel Parsons 2.0% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 3.9% 4.3% 6.3% 6.6% 8.7% 10.4% 16.9% 15.7% 13.5% 5.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.