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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.30+5.54vs Predicted
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2Hampton University2.26+8.72vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.81+1.96vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.72+5.02vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+2.13vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.71+3.14vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.89+1.32vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida2.25+2.60vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.17-1.56vs Predicted
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10Cornell University3.14-2.84vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.75-5.70vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.22-1.12vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.70-3.84vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-3.61vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.44-1.56vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.04-4.38vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College2.17-5.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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10.72Hampton University2.260.0%1st Place
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4.96Georgetown University3.810.2%1st Place
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9.02George Washington University2.720.1%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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9.14Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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8.32Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.6University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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7.44Stanford University3.170.1%1st Place
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7.16Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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5.3College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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10.88University of Miami2.220.0%1st Place
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9.16Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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10.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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13.44SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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11.62Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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11.19Eckerd College2.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Loftus | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 7.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 15.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Carrson Pearce | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Matt Cappetta | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Jensen McTighe | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Clark Uhl | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Augie Dale | 14.0% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Robert Turigliatto | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 5.8% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 15.3% | 34.1% |
| Grace Howie | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 12.1% |
| Connor Ratcliff | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.