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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.25+4.59vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.82+5.06vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+8.27vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.60+3.67vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.37+0.04vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.43+2.43vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.93-0.47vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.73+3.07vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.18+4.26vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.62-2.12vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-3.60vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.76-4.57vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.04+0.44vs Predicted
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14University of Miami2.07-4.43vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.08-1.45vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.63-4.36vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.33-4.15vs Predicted
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18Tulane University1.65-6.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.59U. S. Naval Academy3.250.1%1st Place
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7.06Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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11.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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7.67Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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5.04College of Charleston3.370.2%1st Place
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8.43Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.53Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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11.07Fordham University1.730.0%1st Place
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13.26SUNY Maritime College1.180.0%1st Place
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7.88Stanford University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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7.43George Washington University2.760.1%1st Place
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13.44University of South Florida1.040.0%1st Place
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9.57University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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13.55Hampton University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.64Eckerd College1.630.0%1st Place
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12.85Webb Institute1.330.0%1st Place
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11.33Tulane University1.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bayless | 11.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Luke Welker | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.2% |
| Brad Seferian | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Alie Toppa | 15.3% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phillip Schofield | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Person | 8.8% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Leclue | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| William Sesack | 1.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 15.4% | 15.8% |
| Stephanie Houck | 7.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Riley Legault | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Runnfeldt | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 13.7% | 20.9% |
| Richard McCann | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Filip Stevanovic | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 19.9% |
| Daniel Vail | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% |
| Zane Tinnell | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 14.0% |
| Caelan Watts | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.