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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.33+3.79vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.86+7.12vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.20+2.27vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.12+1.56vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.16+0.38vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.76+3.61vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.82-0.61vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.15+3.12vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.06+2.33vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.09-1.35vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.82-4.61vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.91-5.94vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.80-6.55vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.97-8.13vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.76-5.39vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-5.92vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-1.88-1.64vs Predicted
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18Princeton University-1.24-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Yale University3.330.1%1st Place
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9.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.860.0%1st Place
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5.27Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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5.56University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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5.38Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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9.61Connecticut College1.760.0%1st Place
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6.39Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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11.12Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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11.33Webb Institute1.060.0%1st Place
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8.65Yale University2.090.0%1st Place
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6.39Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.06Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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6.45University of Rhode Island2.800.1%1st Place
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5.87Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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9.61Connecticut College1.760.0%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.0%1st Place
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15.36Columbia University-1.880.0%1st Place
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14.95Princeton University-1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisa Nordstrom | 13.6% | 14.3% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Ballantyne | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 11.9% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Leighton | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 16.5% | 24.6% | 6.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 19.7% | 25.9% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Tobin | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Dochoda | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan naughton | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Filter | 8.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Leighton | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Fairbanks | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 25.7% | 66.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Flynn | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 54.0% | 32.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.