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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.75+3.82vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.75+2.76vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+3.49vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.32+4.77vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.95-0.53vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.38-2.59vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.86+0.28vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.20-1.67vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.34-0.32vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.50-4.37vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.32-2.23vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.45-3.51vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.12-0.76vs Predicted
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14Columbia University-0.23-1.62vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-1.08-1.39vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute-0.47-3.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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4.76Boston University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.1%1st Place
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8.77Connecticut College1.320.0%1st Place
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4.47Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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3.41Yale University3.380.2%1st Place
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7.28University of Pennsylvania1.860.1%1st Place
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6.33University of Rhode Island2.200.1%1st Place
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8.68Yale University1.340.0%1st Place
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5.63Harvard University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.77Connecticut College1.320.0%1st Place
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8.49Cornell University1.450.0%1st Place
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12.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.120.0%1st Place
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12.38Columbia University-0.230.0%1st Place
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13.61Princeton University-1.080.0%1st Place
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12.65Webb Institute-0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Safford | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Cabot | 12.5% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richie Gordon | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AnaLucia Clarkson | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 15.0% | 14.2% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christine Klingler | 21.5% | 20.8% | 16.6% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Probst | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Moffitt | 7.4% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Ryan | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 11.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jonas Nelle | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AnaLucia Clarkson | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Tom O'Shea | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Parsons | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 16.2% | 22.7% | 22.9% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| David Treatman | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 15.5% | 22.7% | 22.7% | 16.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Bailey | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 7.3% | 15.3% | 21.3% | 45.9% | 0.0% |
| Declan Gaylo | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 14.1% | 18.8% | 24.2% | 22.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.