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📊 Prediction Accuracy

31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Shaynah True 17.0% 20.3% 18.1% 16.9% 13.1% 7.6% 4.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Hayes 10.2% 13.0% 14.9% 13.4% 15.5% 13.4% 9.9% 5.0% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TJ Danilek 37.8% 26.7% 17.5% 10.8% 3.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hogan O'Donnell 17.2% 17.6% 18.9% 18.5% 11.8% 9.0% 5.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
David Sutton 1.7% 1.3% 2.9% 3.9% 5.7% 6.0% 10.2% 13.1% 11.6% 10.7% 10.8% 8.7% 6.5% 3.9% 2.8% 0.2%
Danyte Reisinger 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% 1.8% 2.6% 4.4% 6.1% 6.9% 7.9% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.8% 10.1% 9.6% 6.1%
Justin Harler 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.7% 3.1% 2.8% 4.8% 5.2% 7.0% 6.8% 8.6% 10.4% 11.1% 12.6% 14.5% 8.9%
Geoffrey Wells 2.3% 3.7% 5.7% 6.7% 9.9% 11.6% 12.3% 13.8% 11.6% 7.8% 6.7% 4.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Harrison Kempton 7.2% 7.2% 9.7% 12.1% 14.5% 15.2% 11.7% 9.6% 7.0% 2.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lars Sobieski 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 2.1% 3.7% 2.1% 4.8% 4.9% 7.5% 9.0% 10.6% 10.9% 13.3% 12.8% 8.8% 6.5%
Ryan Dorsey 2.8% 2.5% 3.6% 4.7% 7.0% 8.9% 8.9% 13.6% 11.6% 11.7% 10.5% 5.8% 4.6% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Mary James 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 3.4% 3.8% 5.7% 8.5% 8.6% 9.6% 10.1% 10.7% 9.9% 9.6% 8.3% 5.2% 2.5%
Conor Murphy 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 1.3% 2.3% 4.5% 6.2% 6.6% 7.9% 11.1% 10.1% 11.5% 11.1% 10.6% 7.5% 6.3%
Mitchell Reel 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 2.9% 2.3% 3.7% 6.1% 8.1% 6.0% 11.1% 10.5% 14.4% 13.9% 17.1%
Jacob Stasiewicz 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 2.1% 2.0% 3.4% 4.5% 5.3% 8.1% 9.5% 10.1% 12.2% 18.5% 20.2%
Christopher Egerstrom 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 2.1% 3.1% 3.9% 4.4% 5.3% 6.5% 9.3% 11.9% 17.8% 31.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.