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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.05+9.21vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80+9.40vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.59+1.78vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.20+6.00vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College1.69+6.63vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.60+2.57vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.68+4.92vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.82+3.11vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.90-1.63vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.50-1.37vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.93-3.82vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-2.31vs Predicted
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13Harvard University1.83-1.46vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.06-7.32vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.50-6.28vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-9.73vs Predicted
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17Yale University2.90-9.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.21Connecticut College2.050.0%1st Place
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11.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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4.78Stanford University3.590.2%1st Place
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10.0Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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11.63Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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8.57Brown University2.600.1%1st Place
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11.92Fordham University1.680.0%1st Place
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11.11University of Wisconsin1.820.0%1st Place
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7.37Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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8.63Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.18University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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9.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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11.54Harvard University1.830.0%1st Place
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6.68Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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6.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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7.3Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Gurnell | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 6.8% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 13.3% |
| Jack Parkin | 16.7% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Michael Tellini | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 15.9% |
| John Mastrandrea | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Thomas Cooper | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 15.3% |
| Jack Behrend | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 13.7% |
| Peter Lynn | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 1.5% |
| Luke Ingalls | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Walter Gnann | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.2% |
| Francis Doyle | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 14.4% |
| Sam Morrell | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% |
| Jake Vickers | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.