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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.60+7.16vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.50+6.60vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.59+1.75vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.93+3.12vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.20+4.67vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26+3.88vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.50+1.74vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.06-1.50vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.90-1.66vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.90-2.89vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.68+0.97vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.82-0.68vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-6.58vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80-2.39vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.05-4.48vs Predicted
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16Harvard University1.83-4.58vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College1.69-5.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.16Brown University2.600.1%1st Place
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8.6Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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4.75Stanford University3.590.2%1st Place
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7.12University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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9.67Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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9.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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8.74U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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6.5Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.34Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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7.11Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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11.97Fordham University1.680.0%1st Place
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11.32University of Wisconsin1.820.0%1st Place
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6.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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11.61Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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10.52Connecticut College2.050.0%1st Place
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11.42Harvard University1.830.0%1st Place
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11.85Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Mastrandrea | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Jack Parkin | 16.9% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Ingalls | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% |
| Walter Gnann | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% |
| Sam Morrell | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Peter Lynn | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Cooper | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 17.5% |
| Jack Behrend | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 12.3% |
| Jake Vickers | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 14.3% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% |
| Francis Doyle | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 13.5% |
| Michael Tellini | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 16.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.