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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University3.06+5.38vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.50+6.66vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.05+7.49vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.59+0.87vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.20+4.74vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.90+1.35vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.93+0.05vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80+3.21vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-2.57vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.50-1.38vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.82+0.57vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-2.36vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.90-5.72vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.60-5.53vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College1.69-3.19vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.68-4.00vs Predicted
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17Harvard University1.83-5.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.38Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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8.66U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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10.49Connecticut College2.050.0%1st Place
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4.87Stanford University3.590.2%1st Place
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9.74Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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7.35Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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7.05University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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11.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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6.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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8.62Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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11.57University of Wisconsin1.820.0%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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7.28Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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8.47Brown University2.600.1%1st Place
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11.81Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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12.0Fordham University1.680.0%1st Place
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11.42Harvard University1.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Morrell | 11.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% |
| Jack Parkin | 15.5% | 15.2% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Keller | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| Peter Lynn | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Luke Ingalls | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 13.9% |
| Jake Vickers | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Jack Behrend | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 14.4% |
| Walter Gnann | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| John Mastrandrea | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Michael Tellini | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 15.9% |
| Thomas Cooper | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 16.5% |
| Francis Doyle | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.