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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.50+7.50vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.06+4.51vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.90+4.20vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.93+3.12vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.68+6.70vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.90+1.34vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.82+4.41vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College1.69+3.52vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.20+1.18vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80+1.35vs Predicted
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11Harvard University1.83+0.47vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.50-3.27vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.59-8.13vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.05-3.37vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-8.68vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.60-7.59vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-7.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.5U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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6.51Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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7.2Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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7.12University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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11.7Fordham University1.680.0%1st Place
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7.34Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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11.41University of Wisconsin1.820.0%1st Place
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11.52Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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10.18Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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11.35Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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11.47Harvard University1.830.0%1st Place
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8.73Roger Williams University2.500.0%1st Place
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4.87Stanford University3.590.2%1st Place
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10.63Connecticut College2.050.0%1st Place
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6.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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8.41Brown University2.600.0%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Gartner | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| Sam Morrell | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Luke Ingalls | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Cooper | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 17.2% |
| Peter Lynn | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Jack Behrend | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 11.0% |
| Michael Tellini | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 16.6% |
| Christopher Keller | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.6% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 12.1% |
| Francis Doyle | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 14.1% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Jack Parkin | 15.8% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% |
| Jake Vickers | 10.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| John Mastrandrea | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Walter Gnann | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.