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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.59+3.68vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.90+5.15vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.69+8.79vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.90+3.24vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.60+3.17vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.93+1.23vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.50+1.74vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.05+2.28vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.20+1.12vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.50-1.40vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.82+0.48vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-2.32vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-6.62vs Predicted
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14Harvard University1.83-2.51vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.68-3.14vs Predicted
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16Boston University3.06-9.38vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80-5.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68Stanford University3.590.2%1st Place
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7.15Yale University2.900.1%1st Place
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11.79Dartmouth College1.690.0%1st Place
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7.24Boston College2.900.1%1st Place
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8.17Brown University2.600.1%1st Place
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7.23University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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8.74Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.28Connecticut College2.050.1%1st Place
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10.12Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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8.6U. S. Naval Academy2.500.1%1st Place
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11.48University of Wisconsin1.820.0%1st Place
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9.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.0%1st Place
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6.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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11.49Harvard University1.830.0%1st Place
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11.86Fordham University1.680.0%1st Place
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6.62Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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11.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Parkin | 17.9% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Marwell | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Michael Tellini | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 18.2% |
| Peter Lynn | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| John Mastrandrea | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Luke Ingalls | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 5.0% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% |
| Christopher Keller | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% |
| Nicholas Gartner | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| Jack Behrend | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 13.5% |
| Walter Gnann | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Francis Doyle | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| Thomas Cooper | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 16.8% |
| Sam Morrell | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 13.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.