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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.04+5.74vs Predicted
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2Yale University1.57+3.21vs Predicted
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3Olin College of Engineering0.46+5.49vs Predicted
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4Bentley University1.03+2.84vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.36-1.54vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.20-2.30vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.08-1.30vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.10-2.33vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.27-3.92vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University-1.07+1.67vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.65-0.33vs Predicted
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13Amherst College0.53-4.40vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire0.05-4.06vs Predicted
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15University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.94-2.68vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-0.37-5.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.74Tufts University1.040.1%1st Place
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5.21Yale University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.49Olin College of Engineering0.460.0%1st Place
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6.84Bentley University1.030.1%1st Place
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3.46University of Rhode Island2.360.2%1st Place
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3.7Bowdoin College2.200.2%1st Place
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6.7Tufts University1.080.1%1st Place
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6.67Salve Regina University1.100.1%1st Place
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6.08Brown University1.270.1%1st Place
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12.67Fairfield University-1.070.0%1st Place
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11.67Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.650.0%1st Place
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8.6Amherst College0.530.0%1st Place
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9.94University of New Hampshire0.050.0%1st Place
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12.32University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.940.0%1st Place
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10.9Middlebury College-0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Galbraith | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Martin Tipton | 9.6% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Snow | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Memoli | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Parker Colantuono | 24.0% | 18.9% | 15.9% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Perham Black | 19.0% | 19.1% | 17.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Duncan | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Lucie Ford | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Aryaman Dutta | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Isaac Bode | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 21.7% | 34.6% |
| Christopher King | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 17.9% | 18.2% | 19.0% |
| Adam Gibbs | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Thomas Bouchard | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 5.3% |
| Scott Ferreira | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 19.6% | 28.2% |
| Lucie Rochat | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 16.6% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.