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📊 Prediction Accuracy
6.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.40+6.57vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.20+2.95vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.62+3.83vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.50+3.27vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+3.60vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.23+2.25vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.80+2.58vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.06-2.47vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.63-2.19vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.50-2.58vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.71-4.33vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.93-5.86vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.67-2.73vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.78-4.25vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.72-0.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.57Fordham University2.400.1%1st Place
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4.95Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.83Dartmouth College2.620.1%1st Place
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7.27Brown University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.1%1st Place
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8.25University of Vermont2.230.0%1st Place
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9.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.800.0%1st Place
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5.53Boston University3.060.1%1st Place
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6.81George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.42Roger Williams University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.67Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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6.14University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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10.27Yale University1.670.0%1st Place
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9.75Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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14.37Syracuse University-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Hersam | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 14.7% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noah Simmons | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Tucker Weed | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Richie Gordon | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 1.6% |
| Cameron Nash | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 0.8% |
| James Peraire-Bueno | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 3.4% |
| Sam Morrell | 12.6% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Feves | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 0.6% |
| Alex Fasolo | 8.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Luke Ingalls | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 22.1% | 3.9% |
| Caleb Niles | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 18.8% | 2.9% |
| Dane Brazinski | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 6.5% | 82.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.